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Another Foray Into Political Predictions

January 30, 2008

My first foray into political predictions is at least half-wrong now that Guiliani has dropped out of the presidential race.

Best to double down. Here goes my current prediction:

  • John McCain wins the Republican nomination (with prior leads in Super Tuesday states bolstered by his Florida win).
  • Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination (with Obama momentum insufficient to overcome her establishment and interest group support).
  • So many people hate Hillary, that McCain becomes the next president despite what should be a good year for Democrats.
  • Talk of a need for a radically new Republican message recedes as people realize that Republicans may control the White House for all but 12 of the 48 years between 1968 and 2016.
  • McCain faces a Democratic Congress and the political dynamic in Washington looks a lot like it did in 1989 when a moderate Republican president faced a Democratic Congress.
  • President McCain stays the same as he has been for the past decade, conservative and parsimonious by default, but the lack of a principled commitment to classical liberal values (and insights on the limits of state power) makes him give into the temptation to exercise the levers of power to do some "good" on issues that capture his imagination from time to time.

This is no dream scenario for me as would prefer that Washington were dominated by market liberal politicians bent on dismantling large portions of the government. On the other hand, 1989 wasn’t such a bad year in retrospect.

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